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Applying accelerated failure time frailty model using Bayesian approach to identify some risk factors of time to relapses in schizophrenia patients
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Maryam Rahmati   , Mehdi Rahgozar , Enaytollah Bakhshi , Neda Farzaneh , Farbod Fadaei , Leila Cheraghi |
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Abstract: (8484 Views) |
| Introduction: Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder and one of its important
features is repetition of relapses over time. The aim of this study was to
identify some risk factors of relapse time in schizophrenia patients using
Weibull parametric accelerated failure time frailty model in survival analysis with Bayesian
approach. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective longitudinal study, the data was extracted from
records of 159 schizophrenia patients with at least one relapsein Razi
Psychiatric ٍEducational-Medical Centre in Tehran. In survival analysis, the times of relapses of schizophrenia are known
as recurrent events times. To identify some risk factors of these times,
Weibull accelerated failure time frailty model was fitted to the data and
analyzed by Bayesian approach using WinBUGS software to estimate accelerated
factors and their credible intervals for significance testing. Results: 28.7% of males and 12% of females had experienced 9 to 14 times of
relapse. Among the studied factors, age at onset (CI95%: (-0.09, -0.07), gender
(CI95%: (-0.87, -0.21)), marital status CI95%: (-1.12, -0.55) and family
history of schizophrenia (CI95%: (-0.67, -0.17) were identified as significant
risk factors for the times of occurred relapses, but the mode of onset and a history of head
injury was not a significant risk facor. There was a significant correlation
(frailty parameter) among the relapses times (CI95%: (0.24, 0.58)), too. Conclusion: Existing correlation among
relapse times requires continued efforts. To decrease relapse probability
especially in patients who experience relapses in low ages, single, male and
patients with family history of schizophrenia, special preventive and treatment
efforts is recommended. Not uniform registration of other variables in the
records, made identifying other risk factors not possible |
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| Keywords: Relapse, Schizophrenia, Accelerated failure time frailty model, Bayesian approach |
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Full-Text [PDF 162 kb]
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2013/02/17 | Accepted: 2013/09/28 | Published: 2014/03/10
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