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:: جلد 23، شماره 1 - ( زمستان 1399 ) ::
جلد 23 شماره 1 صفحات 56-63 برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها
مقایسه بار سرطان پستان در زنان ایرانی با حوزه مدیترانه شرقی و پیش‌بینی با روش هموارسازی نمایی
پرویز معروضی ، ابراهیم حاجی زاده ، محمد غلامی فشارکی
چکیده:   (389 مشاهده)
هدف: این پژوهش با هدف بررسی روند بار سرطان پستان در ایران و مقایسه آن با حوزه مدیترانه شرقی و در نهایت پیش‌بینی روند بار این بیماری انجام شده است.
مواد و روشها: برابری روند تغییرات بار سرطان پستان در ایران و حوزه مدیترانه شرقی طی سال‌های 1990 تا 2017 با استفاده از روش کوکران آرمیتاژ آزمون شد. روند تغییرات بار سرطان پستان در ایران و حوزه مدیترانه شرقی طی این بازه زمانی توسط سه مدل رگرسیونی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و بهترین مدل بر اساس شاخص‌های مطلوبیت مدل مشخص شد. پیش‌بینی بار سرطان پستان طی سال‌های 2018 تا 2027 به کمک روش هموارسازی نمایی انجام پذیرفت.
یافتهها: در بازه زمانی مورد مطالعه روند بار سرطان پستان (DALY) در ایران و حوزه مدیترانه شرقی تفاوت آماری معنی‌داری نداشت. در ایران شاخص DALY در سال 2013 از شاخص معادل در ناحیه مدیترانه شرقی پیشی گرفت. روند شاخص DALY در ایران از سال 2000 تا 2015 به سرعت افزایش یافته و سپس تا سال 2017 از سرعت رشد این شاخص کاسته شد و بر اساس پیش‌بینی انجام شده از سال 2018 تا 2027 باز هم روند افزایشی کمی را در این شاخص شاهد خواهیم بود. در ناحیه مدیترانه شرقی نرخ رشد شاخص DALY از 1990 تا 2006 با شیب ثابت و تندی افزایش، سپس تا سال 2017 شیب رشد مقداری کمی کاهش داشت و بر اساس مدل پیش‌بینی، روند شاخص DALY تا 2027 مشابه بازه زمانی 2006 تا 2017 خواهد بود.
نتیجهگیری: با توجه به روند افزایشی بار سرطان پستان در طی سال‌های گذشته و هم‌چنین پیش‌بینی افزایشی بودن این روند، اقدامات پیشگیری‌کننده از قبیل طراحی برنامه غربالگری منظم و آموزش و اصلاح سبک زندگی پیشنهاد می‌شود.
 
واژه‌های کلیدی: سرطان های پستان، ایران، ناحیه مدیترانه شرقی، پیش‌بینی
متن کامل [PDF 937 kb]   (61 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: عمومى
دریافت: 1398/11/8 | پذیرش: 1399/3/19 | انتشار: 1399/10/23
فهرست منابع
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70. [34] Mehnati P, Alizadeh H, Hoda H. Relation between mammographic parenchymal patterns and breast cancer risk: considering BMI, compressed breast thickness and age of women in Tabriz, Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2016; 17: 2259-2263. (Persian). [DOI:10.7314/APJCP.2016.17.4.2259] [PMID]
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Marouzi P, Hajizadeh E, Gholami Feshraki M. Comparison of breast cancer burden in Iranian women with Eastern Mediterranean region and prediction by exponential smoothing method. Koomesh. 2021; 23 (1) :56-63
URL: http://koomeshjournal.semums.ac.ir/article-1-6185-fa.html

معروضی پرویز، حاجی زاده ابراهیم، غلامی فشارکی محمد. مقایسه بار سرطان پستان در زنان ایرانی با حوزه مدیترانه شرقی و پیش‌بینی با روش هموارسازی نمایی. كومش. 1399; 23 (1) :56-63

URL: http://koomeshjournal.semums.ac.ir/article-1-6185-fa.html



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